Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
Seasonal bullish factors
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
(责任编辑:时讯)
- 漠河有什么什么之称
- 库神钱包安卓版下载-库神钱包安卓版下载最新版
- 火币HTX开启杠杆+质押双重福利 喜迎质押借币2.0重磅上线 畅享借贷0.09%超低利率
- 请问广发信用卡逾期不还会有什么后果?
- 以太坊币行情软件
- 火币比特币分叉
- 钱站与氧气贷哪个利率高啊?
- 纽约市市长埃里克·亚当斯宣布成立加密货币咨询委员会
- 长期股权投资账面价值包括哪些
- 第19周链上数据:当「山寨季预期」遇上BTC虹吸效应,牛市何时归来?
- 分期乐花额度是多少?不是很了解。
- c游平台c币充值
- 光大银行信用卡阳光银联金卡审批通过多久下卡啊,怎么查询进度啊?
- 2025 年最值得购买的加密货币:Ripple (XRP) 还是 Cardano (ADA)?
- 美国财长质疑穆迪信用评级权威性
- 新项目要想突围,怎么才能赢得市场的「注意力争夺战」?
- 比特币再创历史新高:重新理解黄金、美元和稳定币
- Venom 基金会在封闭网络压力测试中实现 150,000 TPS,为 2025 年主网升级铺平道路
- PEPE突破牛旗形态在即,持仓量飙升至5.27亿美元,接近历史新高
- 没有进项发票交多少税
- okcoin交易平台 views+
- 十大虚拟货币交易平台app views+
- okx交易所app官网 views+
- 欧亿app官网正式版下载 views+
- 虚拟货币交易平台排名 views+
- 数字货币交易所 views+
- 亿欧交易所下载 views+
- 虚拟货币交易平台有哪些 views+
- okcoin下载官方app views+
- 加密货币交易所 views+